A colleague recently shared a set of photos that her husband had taken during a hike while visiting in the Pacific Northwest. He had trekked to a well-known lookout point, one that promised breathtaking views, but what he found instead was a wall of fog. Disappointed, he snapped a photo of the view from about twenty yards beneath the peak, where the lookout itself was barely visible.

What struck us wasn’t just the missed opportunity for a view; it was the decision-making behind the hike itself. When asked if her husband had checked the weather before setting off, our colleague laughed and admitted, “That’s the first thing I wondered, too.”

The foggy scene became an unexpected metaphor for leadership, particularly for those who treat “hope” as a strategy.

Hope Is Not a Strategy

There’s a kind of optimism that is admirable in leaders. It encourages perseverance, instills morale, and brings light into dark seasons. But when optimism replaces preparation, and when “things will work out” becomes the default answer to every potential challenge, we cross a dangerous line.

Leaders who climb toward high points without checking the conditions and press forward because they hope the fog will clear risk wasting time, resources, and credibility. Worse, they risk the trust of the people following them.

Hope must be paired with insight. Otherwise, it’s just wishful thinking.

Warning Signs Exist for a Reason

In the case of our hiker, the fog was likely visible from the base of the hill. But he continued upward anyway, perhaps imagining the view would be better from above. Leaders often do the same. They spot signs of discontent, disengagement, or dysfunction but choose to keep going, assuming that things will somehow improve at the top.

Ignoring the signs of poor morale, unclear roles, market shifts, or emerging threats doesn’t make them disappear. It only delays the inevitable moment when reality demands a reckoning. Leaders must learn to pause, assess the horizon, and recalibrate when conditions change. Clarity requires curiosity.

The Mistake of Withholding the View

What sealed this lesson for me was what happened after the hike. The husband had sent a picture of the fogged-in lookout, but it wasn’t until we asked that he shared the photo from the top that we really appreciated how socked in the mountain was. That image showed just how little could be seen from the peak. A whole valley hidden beneath clouds.

Leaders who withhold information from their teams – whether intentionally or unintentionally – make the same mistake. When team members don’t have the full view, they’re left to assume, guess, and interpret. That kind of fog can be more damaging than the weather.

Transparency isn’t just a courtesy – it’s a necessity. Even if the view isn’t pretty, your team deserves to see it.

Lessons from the Fog

The story of the foggy lookout gives us three key reminders:

1. Don’t confuse optimism with planning. Hope is a beautiful companion but a terrible compass. Know when to adjust the course.
2. Pay attention to signs before and during the journey. The ability to read the environment and adjust accordingly is what separates reactive leaders from resilient ones.
3. Share the full picture, even if it’s not what people want to see. Trust grows when people feel informed, empowered, and prepared, not when they’re shielded from the truth.

We all want the view from the top. But wise leaders know that it’s not just about reaching the peak – it’s about making sure the path is clear, the conditions are right, and the people climbing with them know what to expect. Even when it’s foggy.

Especially when it’s foggy.

The story of our intrepid hiker has a happy ending though! A week later he decided to try again, this time the weather called for sun and clear skies. And this time – with clarity – the view was just as amazing as had been promised!